If you’re currently at the helm of a robotics startup seeking funding, it’s highly likely that you’ll encounter two pressing questions from potential investors: 1) How are you incorporating generative AI into your plans? and 2) Have you considered the development of a humanoid robot? The first query is relatively straightforward to address since, in the year 2024, any cutting-edge robotics company will have inevitably experimented with integrating generative artificial intelligence into their operations.
The second, however, requires a more thoughtful response. You may find yourself contemplating the question and responding with something along the lines of, “while humanoid robots hold immense potential, they may not be the most suitable solution for this particular challenge.” Then, you may try to deftly pivot the conversation by jingling a set of keys and quickly changing the subject. This is not a total rejection of the humanoid form factor; it is simply an acknowledgment that, despite investor excitement, it may not be the most ideal option for every task.
It’s reasonable to speculate that we are currently in the peak of the robotic hype cycle. For example, Figure’s recent $675 million investment astonished many in the industry, raising questions about the sustainability of this market. At this year’s Modex supply chain exhibition in Atlanta, a clear trend emerged – there were surprisingly few humanoid robots in attendance.
Precisely two could be found among the three expansive halls of the Georgia World Congress Center. The most prominent representative was Agility, who attracted large crowds throughout the week at their booth. This year, they showcased upgraded hands, new software, and a workflow tailored for use in automotive manufacturing. Notably, since last year’s ProMat event, significant progress has been made in terms of their product, personnel, and serious discussions about important topics such as ROI.
Agility currently stands out from the competition in terms of their market-ready progress. Conversations about their Digit robot feel less hypothetical when compared to other humanoid robots, but questions about real-world implementation still persist. During the exhibition, many people I spoke with made sure to emphasize the term “PILOT” (written entirely in capital letters) to emphasize the distinction between smaller-scale trial deployments and widespread adoption. Piloting is not uncommon in this industry (nor is it exclusive to humanoid robots); it is a standard and crucial step for testing new technology.
It’s important to remember that pilots are just trials and should be treated as such. There’s a significant gap between a company conducting a pilot of a few devices and committing to a complete overhaul of their manufacturing or warehouse processes to incorporate the new technology. These two concepts are inherently related, as launching a pilot is typically a necessary step before achieving larger-scale adoption. However, media coverage can often conflate the two, creating a misleading image of a product’s success. In reality, there are countless instances of pilots that ultimately do not result in full-scale deployment for a variety of reasons.
One reason why pilots are frequently highlighted is because they typically benefit both parties involved. The company selling the product receives valuable validation (or at the very least, clear interest) from a well-established corporation. Meanwhile, the corporation can signal to shareholders and customers that they are up-to-date on the latest technologies that could provide them with a competitive edge in this fiercely competitive late-capitalist world. It’s certainly worthwhile to keep track of pilots and recognize their significance to startups, but ultimately, it’s the deployment numbers that truly matter.
While speaking with several industry experts, I noticed increased skepticism about the widespread adoption of humanoid robots in workplace settings. As always, it’s essential to take these opinions with a grain of salt and consider the source. If you work for a company that manufactures robotic arms and/or autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), it’s natural to believe that these form factors will continue to dominate the field – they have done so for decades.
However, over the past week, I noticed a shift in conversations when compared to last year. This could be attributed to the considerable progress made by companies like Agility in terms of technology, customer interest, fundraising, and hiring highly skilled individuals. Whatever the cause may be, pure skepticism towards humanoid robots appears to be softening for many people. I heard fewer outright rejections of the humanoid form factor and a more measured sense of optimism.
Many now see a role for humanoid robots in factory settings, but instead of outright replacing more traditional single-purpose systems, these robots would serve to supplement them. They could effectively replace human workers in “human-in-the-loop” systems, which require human intervention. Perhaps this is the time to begin discussing the concept of “humanoids-in-the-loop.” However, for now, the human element remains necessary.
Often, people view this as evidence that automation doesn’t eliminate jobs. Many manufacturers firmly believe that humans will always have a role to play in the industry. Earlier this week, Plus One Robotics CEO Erik Nieves explained the meaning behind their company name, stating, “if we want to increase reliability over time, a human must be added.”
Predicting the future of these complex systems is a nearly impossible task, but that doesn’t stop us from attempting it – or from holding strong and unshakeable opinions. This is one area where my own skepticism or cynicism (depending on the day) is on full display. I believe it’s important to consider the motives of capitalists. Ask yourself seriously: if a company could save a significant amount of money by fully automating their manufacturing and warehouse operations, do you think they would hesitate to do so?
Lights-out factories are few and far between, but they do exist. Manufacturing is well-suited for full automation since it is a highly structured environment that revolves around extremely repetitive workflows. However, while humans may not be present in day-to-day operations, there will always be exceptional cases that require human intervention. These instances, which currently necessitate human workers, could be the perfect opportunity for humanoid robots to step in – whether operating autonomously or through teleoperation, like Reflex, the other humanoid robotics company represented at Modex.
During a conversation with GreyOrange CEO Akash Gupta at their booth this week, he explained, “if you think about lights-out production, there will always be this 5% of exceptions that need to be handled. This is the role humanoids will play in warehouses – filling the 5% gap that requires dexterity and unstructured execution.”
The founding engineer of Dexterity, Robert Sun, pointed out earlier this week that the timelines may not ultimately match up for widespread deployment of humanoid robots. He suggested that while this form factor could play a crucial role in transitioning to lights-out factories and warehouses, the technology may not develop quickly enough to make this feasible.
“As we move towards completely roboticized work in logistics and warehousing, I thought humanoid robots could serve as a useful transition point,” Sun explains. “But currently, we don’t have the human element, so we use humanoids. Eventually, we’ll transition to fully automated lights-out factories. The issue is that humanoid robots prove to be difficult to use during this transition period.”
The timeline is essential here. While many of these systems are marketed as “general purpose,” those familiar with the field understand that this is a promise that remains unfulfilled. Ultimately, the question boils down to how valuable these systems can prove themselves to be in the interim. This is precisely why pilots are crucial – it’s also why much of the conversation has shifted towards ROI.
Humanoid robotics firms may promise the world in the future, and it’s true that their form factor is significantly more adaptable than most single-purpose systems that currently dominate warehouses and factory floors. However, the key to bridging the gap between now and then lies with systems that can demonstrate their value from the very beginning. This is why pilots are critical – and it’s also why the messaging has shifted towards focusing on ROI.
