The state of the Earth’s climate can be described in many ways: global warming, climate change, climate crisis, global weirding. Each term attempts to capture the effects of disrupted weather systems on our planet. Despite the plethora of options, it remains a difficult concept to grasp.
However, researchers at MIT may have a solution. Instead of predicting extreme hurricanes or record-breaking heat waves, they have created a tool to show the number of “outdoor days” a given region can expect from now until 2100 if carbon emissions continue to increase unchecked.
The results may bring alarming or comforting news, depending on where you live. For those in California, France, or Germany, the outlook is not so bad. Summers may become less hospitable, but the springs and falls will be more temperate, adding anywhere from a few days to almost a whole month of outdoor weather compared to historical records. The UK will fare even better, gaining 40 extra outdoor days by the end of the century.
However, not everyone will benefit from this trend. Some areas with mild climates, like New York, Massachusetts, China, and Japan, will lose a week or more of outdoor days. Others will face an even bleaker situation. Illinois, for example, is predicted to lose over a month of outdoor days by the 2080s due to unbearably hot summers. Texas is at risk of losing a month and a half for the same reason.
Unfortunately, the countries with lower income and more vulnerable populations will suffer the most, as scientists have been warning. Nigeria is expected to have even hotter and longer summers, resulting in a loss of almost two months of outdoor days. India is projected to lose almost two and a half months.
However, all is not lost. If the world manages to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 (even if it falls short of the 2050 target), the outlook will significantly improve. Nigeria and India would only lose one month of outdoor days, and regions further north would still see some added outdoor days.
Assessing Risk
The MIT tool is an application of climate scenario analysis, a field of study that aims to understand how climate change will impact different regions and demographics. While not a new field, it has become more widely applicable with advancements in computational power and more sophisticated climate models.
This newfound predictive capability has led to the emergence of several startups in the industry who are using it to provide solutions to the uncertainty of the future. These companies are primarily focused on addressing the concerns of investors, lenders, and insurers.
“Many startups in this space are focused on tackling uncertainty for investors, lenders, and insurers. They supply customers with dashboards and data feeds, tailored to specific regions or assets, to determine the risk of flood, wildfire, and drought.”
Some noteworthy startups in this sector include Jupiter Intelligence, Cervest, and One Concern, all of which have raised significant funding (Jupiter Intelligence: $97 million, Cervest: $43 million, One Concern: $152 million) and provide customers with valuable reports and risk assessments for their assets and supply chains.
However, financial institutions are not the only market in need of climate forecasting solutions. ClimateAI, for instance, is targeting the agriculture industry and has raised $37 million so far. Their water risk assessments are especially valuable for agribusinesses, lenders, and food and beverage companies who have witnessed the devastating effects of droughts, floods, and storms on their crops.
Sensible Weather, on the other hand, offers insurance for outdoor events and activities such as concerts, camping, and golfing. Their $22 million in funding is a testament to the demand for certainty in these industries.
As more businesses and consumers become aware of how climate change is affecting their lives, the demand for certainty will give rise to numerous new markets for startups in this field. What was once a niche field limited to academics and insurance companies is now poised to enter the mainstream as climate scenario analysis takes center stage.
