“Elon Musk’s decision to prioritize a robotaxi over an affordable electric vehicle (EV) may potentially jeopardize the company’s current lead in the market.”
Last week, it was reported that Musk made the call to scrap plans for an affordable EV in favor of a robotaxi. This type of ambitious, groundbreaking project has been the hallmark of Musk’s leadership throughout his first decade at the helm of the company. Some argue that Tesla’s success can be attributed to its willingness to take bold risks, and the ability to deliver on enough of these promises to impress shareholders and generate significant positive cashflow. However, this approach was much more viable in the early days when there was less at stake and much more freedom to take risks.
Fast forward to present day, and Tesla is no longer the plucky upstart it once was. With an impressive $100 billion in revenue last year and net profits of $15 billion, the company is now a global manufacturing powerhouse, churning out hundreds of thousands of cars every quarter. In this highly competitive landscape, success is measured by continuous improvements in productivity and process indicators.
According to reports, Tesla was on the verge of producing a $25,000 EV. In January, Musk himself confirmed plans to begin constructing a next-generation vehicle at the Texas plant by the second half of 2025. Suppliers were already bidding on parts contracts, with a projected production volume of 10,000 vehicles per week. With sales of the company’s current product line on the decline, this would have been a much-needed boost for Tesla.
An affordable EV would have significantly expanded Tesla’s total addressable market by undercutting the average sales price in the U.S. of $47,000. It would also have allowed the company to compete against the predicted influx of inexpensive Chinese EVs.
Unfortunately, opting to pursue a robotaxi project means starting from scratch and creating an entirely new production line. This is something Tesla has only done at scale with the Model 3, which by all accounts, was no easy feat. However, building a robotaxi, on the other hand, sounds like a thrilling challenge to Musk.
Musk has been fascinated by the idea of a robotaxi for years. In fact, in 2017, he boasted that such a car could potentially earn its owner up to $30,000 per year by ferrying paying passengers. He even boldly declared that “there is no amount that we could possibly build that will be enough” to satisfy demand for this service.
But the reality is, Tesla has been grappling with autonomous hardware and software for quite some time now and has not yet been able to deliver a vehicle capable of Level 5 driving, which requires zero human input. Despite years of research and development, Autopilot remains a Level 2 system, meaning it still requires human supervision at all times. The same goes for Full Self-Driving. And while artificial intelligence has made tremendous strides in recent years, the question remains: is it advancing quickly enough for Tesla to deliver a groundbreaking product within the next few years?
Given Musk’s penchant for pursuing far-reaching projects, it’s possible that Tesla could either create a separate division or establish a “skunkworks” team devoted specifically to the development of a robotaxi. However, it’s unlikely that Musk would want to spin off a division given that a significant portion of his personal wealth is invested in Tesla’s stock. On the other hand, Musk is also known for being heavily involved in every aspect of Tesla, so he may not want to simply run a side project.
Ultimately, this is something the Tesla board of directors should be weighing in on. However, there have been numerous reports highlighting the close ties between Musk and the board, making it unlikely that any meaningful disagreement would occur. Unfortunately, this could ultimately cost Tesla its current lead in the market.
